January 17, 2024

By Jonathan Thang

Since military coup Feb.1, 2021, “The Burma’s Revolution” process has been facing a hard bumpy road all the times.  In order to say short, let me come into short-to-the-points regarding the process of strategy and policies lay out by revolution movement forces.

When it comes to Revolution, there are two main strategic factors, how the revolution movement is implementing.

1. Foreign policy (To received recognition from international communities, at least one Super bloc, which can supply arms and ammunition).
2. Building internal power bloc among “Ethnic Arms Organizations” by power sharing, distributing tasks and responsibilities.

Unfortunately, none of above primary factors were succeeded.  When it comes to politics, “the stake holder must know how to play political chess game, otherwise you must learn properly before you enter into politics. The current stake holders in Burma are either lack of political knowledge or intentionally cunning enough to spoil the game for personal gain, only time will tell.

Foreign policy failure:

Where in the World, the interim government the NUG has able to establish as a legitimate government? Do they really think that protocol engagement is consider as a recognition?, if so, that must be really immature enough to think that way and lack of political knowledge. Why can’t they even buy enough proper military hardware yet, if NUG think that they have got proper recognition from a certain country? The main thing is most NUG members are not knowing how to play politic especially in term of “geopolitical approach”. The worst is, the NUG don’t even know how to approach the right political lobbyist team around the world.  After all, the main failure at the process of bargaining “political deal”, which effect the most, at the current revolution process.

Failure at Internal Power bloc structure:

Actually, the NUG is very fortunate enough to have some EAOs group, who were eager to help the NUG’s political approach, as well as to help the citizen of Myanmar to free from persecution of Min Aung Hlaing led military oppression. The two main EAOs has protected and leading to counter offensive against Min Aung Hlaing’s military forces in Northern and Southern front of Burma.  But CRPH led NUG has failed to share basic power sharing and political agreement with the two important EAOs, the same goes to the rest EAOs group.  Therefore, most of EAOs are not trusted toward NUG’s leadership.  As a result there is no proper agreement toward how the counter offensive will be implementing. Which simply indicate to start counter offensive as a nationwide strategy is not going to happen soon.  That mean the revolution movement will not succeeded in the near future yet.

Even the recent escalation around nationwide were not properly coordinated by NUG, instead the local EAOs has manage by themselves to achieve their own agenda.  The most unfortunate issues is when the neighbor China use some of EAOs group as her pawn in this political chess game.  The authority from China should engage and cooperate with the NUG, if their intention are honest toward the stability of future Burma. China must remember, the foreign policies which she laid upon Burma will deeply hurt the so called their internal matter when its come to Taiwan issues and Xinjiang Uyghurs Autonomous Region (state).

In the mean time, my sincere message to all the EAOs and revolution forces is that “we must know that none of our forces are only to be use by any others as a “bargaining chip”. We have been witnessing there are some, clearly being used as a “pawn/ bargaining chip” by outsider, they have been directly or indirectly commanding from behind the scene, which we must pay proper attention. Those who are willing to be puppet of China will suffer a terrible consequences in the future (which I could explain why in the next article).

What are remedies?

NUG must use all the available human resources (certainly there are many from Burma who are good enough to use in lobby activities (we do have lot of Castle and Bishop level at the chess game)).  I personally have even met some of concern lobby team (including foreign lobbyist team and international well wishers who have a strong connection and willing to help Burma. whom have even fed millions of Burmese refugees some decade ago), who were eager to help in the process of current Burma’s revolution movement, but CRPH flatly denied and failed to used them, instead they prefer to work with Myanmar based their own home grown human resources.  Within 3 years, they should have known those home grown lobbyists are useless.  We must use international lobbyist team or anyone who can really bring the change, who can really struck political end game deal.

Building internal power forces by sharing proper responsibilities and duties among EAOs is crucially needed, of course, it will only achieved after mutually understanding and recognizing how federal structure to be implement in Burma. The current NUG’s federal minister Dr. Lian Hmung Sakhong has the wrong position compare to what he is good at (at least in federal issues, which will I mention in next article). In this current political scenario, NLD led CRPH should have known that they are no longer in a position of holding or acting as a government level. They have lost the power to rule after the military coup. Therefore, they must ready to make a deal with all the EAOs to share power and responsibilities. Which means, the NLD led CRPH status is not more than coordinator level in this revolution movement. Without understanding the fundamental facts, the process can not move forward to reach a proper agreement. Without proper agreement among internal forces will be delay the revolution movement. Moreover, the individual combat activities will be occur again and again without properly coordinating at national level, which will simply lead into conflicts among EAOs and nationwide counter attack will never occur to end military rule.

As you have seen what recently the Northern three brotherhood alliance has done since October 2023, the Northern alliance (three brotherhoods MNDAA, TNLA and AA) has came up with “1027 military combat strategy/operation”, which end up capturing over 400 military outposts (big and small) of Min Aung Hlaing led military territories.  Many Burmese are welcome to see defeating Min Aung Hlaing led military outposts. Even though the three brother alliance groups are advancing in this “Burma’s Revolution” process, compare to any other ethnic arms forces or NUG led PDF force, their goal and commitment are not the same as other, when it comes to “Federal System” to establish in the country.  As a result, we can clearly see that three brotherhood alliance will not be interested in establishing federal system in the country; or whether be it NUG or Min Aung Hlaing led military rule the country. Their ultimate goal is to gain a territory where they could claim as autonomous region or in the name of confederate status. Do you think AA, the member of “Three brotherhoods alliance” would dare to attack the joint project sponsor by India (the strategic project of India), without the back up of China? If so, how far China has already invested on those puppet groups? This is the idea, the NUG must know instead of trying to persuade China by licking their shoes. It will not work but the right firm foreign policies and political deals.

Moreover, the NUG and the people of Burma must purely understand the concept that th current confiscated military outposts are not the sign to consider as that NUG is winning, instead only benefit to concerned EAOs. In the mean time, its indicate the lack of leadership skills among revolution forces to build unity and it is simply due to decrease of morale in Min Aung Hlaing led military.  The most important thing to do now is, “NUG must alert and start the right things by restructuring internal forces in a concrete allies relationship and lay out the right foreign policy to gain a proper recognition from one of super bloc. If not the revolution movement will fruitlessly ended. If so, the sole perpetrator is NUG and its affiliated CRPH. In the end, the whole team of NUG leadership will be consider as betrayer of “the Burma Revolution”.

Filed under: 1 General News, 2 Burma News | Tagged: asia, burma, history, myanmar, politics |